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Tracking Tropical Storm Erika: Could Remnants Hit Our Area?

PITTSBURGH (KDKA) – Tropical Storm Erika made landfall in Puerto Rico Friday with rain and wind killing at least four people and causing devastating floods and mudslides in the eastern Caribbean island of Dominica, where authorities said about 20 people were still missing.

The storm was expected to dump up to 8 inches (20 centimeters) of rain across the drought-stricken northern Caribbean as it headed toward the Bahamas and the U.S.

KDKA Meteorologist Ron Smiley is keeping close tabs on the path that Erika is taking, as it may affect the weather here in the Pittsburgh area.

WATCH: KDKA Meteorologists Ron Smiley's Latest Forecast

Smiley says you may have noticed that the latest 5-day forecast track from Tropical Storm Erika travels directly over Florida and into Central Georgia.

Here is his latest update on whether or not we'll see the remnants of Erika hit us.

So do we have a chance of seeing some form of the remnants from this storm here in Western Pennsylvania?

Looking at data this morning the chances look low that anything resembling Erika would impact us with soaking and potentially flooding rains.

Looking at the long range 15 day GFS weather model this morning shows the center of Erika stalling out over the Carolinas and potentially dropping upwards of 10 inches on parts of Tennessee and Georgia.

It meanders, according to the GFS, to the west and south while weakening as high pressure sits on top of Pennsylvania. It's still a potential rain maker as it moves on top of Arkansas. If the GFS proves accurate we could potentially see a rain band from the remnants of Erika on Thursday as far north as Central West Virginia.

The GFS, however, is only one model out of dozens that are run multiple times a day with the latest data available.
Remember that over the past 24 hours we have seen the track change from indicating an uncertain landfall to now pointing to this tropical system moving directly over Florida.

The GFS we used as an example above is one of the better performing models when it comes to track, although it isn't 'just' a hurricane model.

The GFDL is known as a 'hurricane model' and on day five (Tuesday) it places the remnants of Erika in Western Virginia and tracking northwest. The ECMWF, another fairly reliable model but not specifically a 'hurricane model' shows the storm traveling into the Gulf of Mexico before moving northeast over Florida and then back out to sea. Once back out to sea it hugs the coast as it travels north.

At this point it is simply too early to know exactly what Erika is going to do. Could it impact us? Yes it could, but with the data we have at this point the chance of that looks fairly low. Of course we will continue to monitor the situation and will let you know if and when things change.

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