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PITTSBURGH (KDKA) – Strong storms will be possible on Tuesday. At this point, it is hard to tell how likely it is for the storms to actually develop.
According to KDKA-TV Meteorologist Ron Smiley, there are a number of things that can muck up the forecast, including early morning rain and clouds along with timing of the cold front being off. Still, at this point, you should be prepared for a severe weather outbreak with the peak time being Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A Tornado Warning has been issued for Armstrong, Clarion and Jefferson counties until 3 p.m.
A Severe Thunderstorm Warning has been issued for Cambria and Somerset counties until 3:15 p.m.
The Storm Prediction Center, one of the branches of the National Weather Service, has already issued a slight risk of severe weather for all of western Pennsylvania and the surrounding area.
At this point, they put the hail and strong wind risk at 15 percent and the tornado risk at 5 percent. This means in a 25-mile radius you will have about a 1-in-6 chance of seeing hail and about a 1-in-6 chance for seeing destructive wind.
As for tornadoes? Well, within a 25-mile radius, they are putting your chance of being impacted by a tornado at 1-in-20.
Overnight rain showers and weak storms are expected along a warm front that will slide in. This will likely keep our overnight lows around 70 degrees.
For the remainder of the day, we will be in what is called the “warm sector.” This unstable air mass will be hot and humid with strong winds coming in from the south. Wind gusts could easily top 30 MPH ahead of any storms that develop.
As we enter into the afternoon hours, things should be dry for a bit before we begin to see storms firing across western Pennsylvania and surrounding communities. Storms will move fast to the northeast with lots of lightning possible.
These individual cells will have the potential to turn into super cells – storms with the potential to drop large and long-lasting tornadoes. Strong wind and hail will also be possible in any of these individual cells.
The peak time for these storms to develop will likely be after 4 p.m. and before 8 p.m. This does not mean that storms won’t develop outside of this window.
A cool front will roll through on Wednesday morning. Light drizzle will fall for the remainder of the morning on Wednesday.
Wednesday’s high is only expected to reach 70 degrees. Highs for the rest of the work week will be in the mid-70s with lows potentially falling into the 40s for some communities.