House District In Allegheny County May Be Key For 2020 Presidential Election
ALLEGHENY COUNTY (KDKA) -- A column this week in the Wall Street Journal said if you want to know who will win the 2020 presidential election, look no further than Marshall Township in northern Allegheny County.
The area traditionally goes Republican, but it saw Democrats gain ground in 2018.
Political consultants believe it's not the only suburb from our area that could be a bellwether.
Democratic consultant Mike Mikus and Republican consultant Mike DeVanney said Pennsylvania's House District 28 is worth watching.
It's currently held by Republican House Speaker Mike Turzai, who is not running for re-election.
In 2016, the district went red for President Donald Trump, but it was blue for some state and federal elections.
"Upper-middle-class, wealthier more educated voters have gravitated towards the Democratic party in response to both Donald Trump's policies but also how he carries himself," Mikus said outside his South Side office.
He said to also watch the South Hills, especially the communities in Democratic Congressman Conor Lamb's district.
"Whether it's Upper St. Clair in the South Hills or Marshall and McCandless in the North Hills," Mikus said. "these communities have become very Democratic."
DeVanney said 2018 was a watershed year for the Democrats, with Republicans like Speaker Turzai still getting elected despite Democratic success in that district. He believes 2020 will depend on who the Democratic nominee is.
"They're attracting more and more of the upper income and higher educated base if they go a certain portion left. But as they go closer to socialism and the economic implications that impact them, you're going to lose them as well," DeVanney said.
He adds the current state of the economy will have those bellwether areas thinking with their wallets come November.
"I think when they look at their 401ks, how they're doing when they look at this record-low unemployment, they might not like the tweeting. They might not like the bravado, but they like the extra bang in their pocket," DeVanney said at his downtown office.
Mikus said some Democrats are going door-to-door to win over those suburbs, while DeVanney said Republicans will wait until they know who President Trump's opponent is.
