Allegheny Health Network Doctor Expects A Rise In Coronavirus Hospitalizations And Deaths In Weeks Following 4th Of July
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) -- Cases of coronavirus are spiking in Allegheny County.
On Tuesday, the Allegheny County Health Department reported 204 new coronavirus cases.
"I'm really concerned about the cases that are going up. The Fourth of July weekend really bothers me," says AHN Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine physician Dr. Tariq Cheema. "We already saw a big surge from Memorial Day weekend, and I think the Fourth of July weekend was much bigger. You had a three-day weekend, barbecues, good weather, absolutely no social distancing going on. So that particular event is going to lead to a bigger surge."
But deaths are steady or declining in some places. This is because people don't die immediately after testing positive.
"In the next 7 to 10 days, you'll see a rise in hospitalizations. And then probably another two weeks after that, we will see the increased number of deaths," Dr. Cheema said. "From positivity to death, between four to six weeks."
Young people account for many of the recent cases, and they aren't as likely to die from the disease. But this is a troubling pattern that points to more delayed deaths.
"You may want to add another two weeks to that," Dr. Cheema said. "Because in two weeks, you may be transmitting the disease to some family members. And then that family member is going to get sick, and you may see an increased rate in death."
The intensive care units could also fill up.
"That's one of my biggest worries at the moment," Dr. Cheema says. "Our ICU beds are already filled with patients who were non-COVID, who were coming in for their surgeries that were backed up because of the quarantine. On top of that, if you get COVID, you don't have those free beds. And that's when capacity becomes an issue."
It's too soon to say whether the new information on treatments will make a big difference.
"There is no magic bullet," Dr. Cheema says. "I can't say the death rates are going to be lower compared to what they were in March."
What has been helpful, though, is time.
"We really have a surge plan now," says Dr. Cheema. "Now we have more PPE, we have a better plan, people are ready for this, they kind of know what to expect."
Dr. Cheema worries now that the lockdown is over, cases will continue to go up, and the hot spot patterns of March will repeat themselves.
