PITTSBURGH (KDKA) – Good morning, can I rant about something that is a little annoying right now?

You may have seen it on your social media feed popping up yesterday. I am talking about articles and social media posts talking about potential systems more than a week out.

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The problem with these early forecasts is that weather is all about probabilities. A chance for rain. A temperature forecast. We take math and science and come up with the most likely solution or outcome.

Photo Credit: KDKA Weather Center

Our forecast gets more accurate as we get closer to an event. We also have more tools available to us including high-resolution model data that goes out at most to 60 hours. Rounding errors from dropsondes (weather balloons) upper-level air data isn’t as big a deal when it comes to one day out as compared to five days out and even beyond. Even being able to look and see radar and satellite data, which is key to making a forecast is more useful for the day you are forecasting as compared to a week out.

All of this is to say the further out the forecast…the less that forecast is science-based and the more it’s wish-cast based.

Oftentimes, forecasts that come into play that are over 150 hours out cherry-pick data.

Basically, it’s ‘mom’s basement guy’ that sees one long-range model that points to something and then jumps on it, posting to social media.

These forecasts don’t look at model data to be both consistent with time and location. It just becomes “this one model showed this and now I will share because I know it will get a lot of clicks.” That being said I do have respect for many of the long-range model prognosticators out there.

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Their social media prowess is impressive. O.K., rant over.

Looking at our forecast today, highs today will be in the mid-60s after we only hit 43 yesterday for the high. I do have an isolated rain chance in the morning hours but it shouldn’t be much and I am not seeing much on the radar.

Partly cloudy skies are expected for the afternoon.

Rain chances return tomorrow, arriving just before sunrise and bringing light rain showers for the morning commute. The light rain will pick up to light to moderate rain at noon.

Rain should be wrapping up around 3-4 on Thursday afternoon.

Friday will be dry but cool.

Seasonal weather will be around on Saturday and Sunday with a Sunday evening rain chance.

Photo Credit: KDKA Weather Center

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