Jeff Verszyla’s Winter Weather Forecast

After last year’s rough winter, who doesn’t want to know how much snow we’re going to get and how cold will it be this year?

KDKA Chief Meteorologist Jeff Verszyla has the answers in his annual winter weather forecast.

First he expects an early winter chill setting in by late November and lasting through December.

But his forecast calls for no Snowmageddon this year. A repeat performance of last year’s record-setting snowfall is not in the cards.

In fact, expect only two snowfalls greater than five inches for the entire season.

Rather than paralyzing snowstorms, our winter will be characterized by sloppy winter storms. Systems cutting through the Ohio Valley will likely bring more bouts of mixed precipitation like rain, snow, sleet and ice events.

Verszyla expects greater than normal temperature swings where big chills will be followed by big warm-ups, so the freeze-thaw cycle should make several rounds.

Normal Temps/ Below Avg. Snowfall
Forecast High – 52…Avg High 51
Forecast Low – 35…Avg Low 34
Forecast Snow – 2.5″…Avg Snowfall – 3.1″

November will ease us into the season with normal temperatures, highs averaging 52 and lows 35. Snowfall will be below average at 2.5 inches.

Below Normal Temps / Above Normal Snowfall
Forecast High – 36…Avg High – 40
Forecast Low – 22…Avg Low – 25
Forecast Snow – 15.8″…Avg Snowfall – 6.9″

December should help you get into the holiday spirit. Temperatures will be below normal with highs averaging 36 and lows at 22 while snowfall will be above normal at 15.8 inches, making the chances of a white Christmas pretty good.

Normal Temps / Above Normal Snowfall
Forecast High – 35…Avg High – 35
Forecast Low – 20…Avg Low – 20
Forecast Snow – 13.8″…Avg Snowfall – 12.3″

The first month of 2011 should be interesting with conflicting cold and mild air masses causing large temperature fluctuations.

However, in the end, the month should be fairly average with near normal temps, highs of 35 and a slightly above normal snow total of 13.8 inches.

Above Normal Temps / Below Normal Snowfall
Forecast High – 41…Avg High – 39
Forecast Low – 25…Avg Low – 22
Forecast Snow – 4.1″…Avg Snow – 8.5″

It looks like this could be the year where Punxsutawney Phil gets a warm welcome. February looks completely different from a year ago with temperatures on the warmer side of normal at 41 for the average high and 25 for the low and snowfall of 4.1 inches – less than half the average.

Normal Temps / Normal Snowfall
Forecast High – 49…Avg High – 49
Forecast Low – 31…Avg Low 30
Forecast Snow 7.0″…Avg Snowfall – 7.9″

The significant seasonal swings will settle down in March. The late winter/early spring transition period will be absolutely average with high and temps of 49 and 31 respectively and snowfall of seven inches coming in near normal by the time the daffodils awake from their winter nap.

When we close the books on this winter, despite some wild swings, temperatures will finish pretty close to normal. Verszyla expects a total snowfall of 43.2 inches, which is 4.5 inches higher than normal and overall precipitation from more mixed events should be well above average.

More from Jeff Verszyla
  • Jim

    Meteorologists can’t even get tomorrow correct and now they’re predicting a season! Hilarious.

  • Ryan

    He did OK last year. He predicted a couple big snowfalls last year, allbeit he said they would be half the size they actually were. But no one could have called what happened last year. It was way out of the norm.

  • mike

    he calls for the same thing every year… how about the northern counties and the laural highlands .he must forget about us up here with all the lake effect snow events for the northern counties and the laural highlands which usually gives us up to 5 inches …with a warmer season will keep the lakes unfrozen and with several waves of cold air will give us more in the way of lake effect snowfall. also all the clipper systems that come out of the northwest…its all the little stuff that gives western pa/east ohio its snowfall for the season…we’re not the east coast that only gets maybe 2 five inch snows. i do think hes right in the way of the big winter weather events which prob with weather pattern the way it is will keep a mix for most of us. areas pittsburgh on south will get more in the way of rain/ice while northern and east communities will recieve the sleet ice and snow. overall noone knows the forecast only she does.

  • Betsy

    Usually Jeff’s pretty close on target. Even when I was in Texas in the mid 1990s, he got it right.

  • Kelley

    Agreed with Jim. It seems to me each year they purposely under-estimate the winter to make it seem not so bad. 4 inches in feb. for pittsburgh? You are out of your mind. I’m not saying that based on the huge storm last year… its just always very very snowy here in february maybe not a paralyzing amount but come on… more than 4 inches. It’s a good forecast though, based on what i’ve been reading he nailed he temperature part of the forecast.

  • Rich

    Personaly I look forward to the winter forecast..I wish he would update it every month..for those being critical of the people who predict weather four months in advance try to predict whats going to happen in your future four months in advance..Are you going to hit a deer ? are you going to get in an accident this winter ?will you hit the lottery ?Is someone you know going to get ill? will the steelers go to the super bowl?I guess come march we can all be monday morning coaches,unless your team plays monday night

  • Otis

    we will see,said the wise woman from aliquippa,we will see!

  • Praying for snow

    I for one LOVE snow!!! To me Pa winters stink all cold barely any snow. Of course the way most people drive we are better off without it. They see one snowflake and freeze!

  • alan

    4 inches in feb…we got that in a hour last year….cmon

  • alan

    dec was totally wrong jeff

  • Snow lover

    Loose the go-te Jeff !!!! WE WANT SNOW !!!!!!

  • ed

    Wednesday: We just shoveled 4 inches off our driveway and there is another 2 inches to shovel. One lane of rte 30 to Ligonier is snow covered from Latrobe.
    Not sure where you are getting the 2 inches!

  • AJS

    You people are rough! Lets see one of you go on TV and predict the weather on a daily basis. It is not easy. They just do not let any “joe” in the street talk about weather, he or she has to be qualified. Also, a person has to go to school to be a meteorologist. Give the guy a break!

  • Ryan

    4.1″ in February…FAIL
    43.2″ for the season – EPIC FAIL: 50″+ and still a month to go.

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