What Will Happen After The Election? Pundits Predict The Future
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) -- It's hard to believe, but Election Day is here and Americans are clamoring to learn who will be elected the next President of the United States.
In fact, voters are clamoring so badly that election anxiety has reached epic levels and many are even suffering from "Election Stress Disorder."
That led us to wonder, what about after the election? What should we expect come Wednesday and beyond? The country is enveloped in uncertainty, so we reached out to some pundits who shed some light on what could happen once the results are in and our new president is elected.
Providing us with their input are Dr. Larry Sabato, poll guru and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, and professor Michael Berkman, director of the McCourtney Institute for Democracy in the College of the Liberal Arts at Penn State University.
If Donald Trump wins, what are the immediate significant consequences you predict will happen?
Berkman: If HRC loses Democrats will be working through a great deal of grief and anger that HRC could lose to Trump. I see no reason to believe Trump would reach across the aisle because he's shown no proclivity to do that yet and he has a good deal of work to do shoring up and uniting his own party. I suspect we'll see a series of executive actions undoing Obama policies intended to show strength and action. He'll ask Congress to send him a bill quickly to repeal the ACA. He of course cannot indict anyone but his Justice department could appoint a special prosecutor. That would be such a massive mistake I would think they would not do that. I expect our allies will be very anxious and adversaries eager to test him. There will be protests on the left that could be met with significant force. I worry it will be a scary time.
Sabato: I don't think we'll have to worry about this. But if it's Dewey vs Truman again: Strife and upheaval is inevitable assuming Trump pursues the policies he has outlined on immigration and many other topics. It's always possible he'll reverse course, though. Maybe he would prove more pragmatic in office, or maybe he would simply prove to be erratic—which would generate more strife. Trump would have a GOP Congress, probably both houses. The real question is how compliant they would prove to be. Perhaps Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell could act as brakes on Trump, though the GOP base would insist they support the new president.
If Hillary Clinton wins, what are the immediate significant consequences you predict will happen?
Berkman: A large HRC victory would make it difficult for DT to claim rigging. A closer election would be problematic. It will put establishment Republicans in a difficult position about whether to support him. My sense is that they will abandon him and he'll be out on his own, but with significant right-wing media support and angry supporters. I think the Senate Republicans have been very clear about what will greet HRC: resistance on a scale greater than shown Obama. As a Senator HRC worked effectively with Republicans but the remaining Republicans in the House and Senate will be even more conservative than before. I would expect HRC to push an immigration bill that will divide Republicans along lines seen in the election. At least some contingent of Republicans will look for immediate reasons to raise impeachment, forgetting how badly it goes when they try to impeach a Clinton.
Sabato: We need to see the election results, of course. Will she carry in a Democratic Senate? Even a tied Senate would help her. Democrats may eliminate the 60-vote rule so that she can get a Supreme Court justice confirmed, for example. The House is likely to stay Republican. They will reject most everything of substance she submits. So foreign policy and administrative actions (such as executive orders) may be the areas where she can make a mark.
How do you think the American public will respond in the case of each candidate winning?
Berkman:I think an interesting question is whether or not Trump will be shown the respect and deference usually shown a president (although in many cases not Obama). Given the tone of the campaign and his insulting comments I could imagine many simply not accepting him. If HRC wins a significant portion of Trump's supporters may well see her as illegitimate because they have been told repeatedly the election is rigged.
Sabato: I think we can safely dismiss the idea of a honeymoon. It's going to be a difficult four years with more gridlock and partisanship either way.
What will the immediate challenge be after inauguration for each nominee should they win?
Berkman:The country is deeply divided. David Brooks has spoken eloquently on this lately. The election will reflect deep fissures along gender, race, education, rural/urban, and age. HRC will face pressure from the left. She will not be able to ignore them.
Sabato: To unify the country and get the cooperation of the other party. Good luck with that.
How did this election cycle change how future election cycles will take place?
Sabato: On the Republican side, there will be an attempt to rally around two or three acceptable mainstream candidates to freeze out anybody like Trump.
What do you foresee being the political climate of 2017? As cold as this year or finally warming up?
Berkman: The American public is angry and lacking hope. The Congress is advertising an unwillingness to work with the Democratic nominee. So if HRC wins, it won't be pleasant. If Trump wins and has a united Congress I think we'll see the most conservative policies ever, developed by the Congress and approved by a largely hands-off president. Of greatest concern is how far Trump goes on his more authoritarian instincts: restrictions on the press, harsh deportation, torturing suspects, cracking down on protests, etc.
Sabato: Very chilly.
What will happen to the Republican party either way after this election?
Berkman: We will know a lot once we see if Ryan is seriously challenged and if he is able to proceed on basic legislation (like passing a budget). But they are deeply divided in this election and it is hard to imagine that going away, especially if they lose. And if they are reduced by 15 House seats or so, those will be 15 of their most moderate members. So the asymmetrical polarization we've seen for many years will continue.
Sabato: Their choice is to reform or die (or at least wither). They have little appeal to minorities or young people, and they have alienated a solid majority of women. It's too late for just window-dressing. Will there be a crack-up in the GOP? I don't know but it's a possibility.
Meanwhile, in his final picks from his famed "Crystal Ball," Sabato is projecting Clinton to top Trump in the Electoral College vote, 322 to 216.
